Which franchise is the second best team in football right now? It is a relatively simple question, particularly if you buy into the oft-quoted Bill Parcells line of “you are what your record says you are”. The Packers are 10-0, and no one would dare question their position at the pinnacle of the game. Then we have the San Francisco 49ers, who are the only one-loss team left in the league; indeed, the next best record is actually 7-3, a mantle shared by seven inconsistent teams. Yet for some reason, our natural reaction is not to believe in the record. It is almost like an illusion created by smoke and mirrors. Sure, it looked like David Copperfield made the statue of liberty disappear, but we knew all along that there must be a rational explanation for what we saw.

If we dressed up the Niners record in Patriot or Cowboy colours then we would be far more inclined to trust it. It is also likely that, given the choice, most of us would take a team like the Patriots or Cowboys over the Niners if they were to meet in the playoffs, regardless of record. Is this fair? What is the root cause of this disbelief?

The first strand of the explanation lies in personnel. The Niners are essentially the same team that took the field last season and finished 6-10. The one significant difference is at Head Coach, with the ever-animated Jim Harbaugh taking the reins. His charismatic influence has been cited as the key reason for the turnaround in the team’s performance on defense and the apparent transformation of Alex Smith on offense. It is true that there have been improvements in productivity, but it is possible that these improvements have been overstated.

San Francisco’s defense has been relentless this year, particularly against the run. The Niners have not allowed a rushing TD in the first ten games of the season. Since the merger, this is a feat that has been achieved only twice before; by the 49ers themselves in 1997 and by the 1986 Jets. The Niners defense is ranked 1^st against the rush, allowing only 73.9 yards per game. In terms of passing yards, the defense is ranked at a less impressive 23^rd, which places them 8^th overall in total defense. Last year, the Niners defense was 6^th against the run (allowing 96.7 yards per game) and 24^th against the pass, leaving them 13^th overall in total defense. The advancement is noticeable, but not dramatically so.

The same could be said of Alex Smith. His completion percentage has increased from 59.6% to 64%, and his QB rating is up by over 13 points. His passing yards per game, however, has decreased from 215.5 to 189.9 and he is currently ranked two places lower in the overall QB table in this respect. He has not become Tom Brady, but with only 3 interceptions against his 11 touchdowns this season he has become an effective game manager. He cannot be said to be the reason for the Niners success, but he is certainly no longer a hindrance.

If the personnel are relatively unaltered, and the team’s productivity has not exponentially increased, then there must be another way to dissect the record. This leads to the second strand of the explanation: the Niners have an appreciably soft schedule. Six of the nine teams that they have beaten have records below .500. They have also taken down the Bengals, (6-4 but yet to beat a team with a record over .500), the Giants one week removed from an emotional win in New England, (the same inconsistent Giants team that lost at home to the woeful Seahawks and Vick-less Eagles), and the Lions, (a 7-3 team that has lost three of their last five, and one of their two wins came against the 2-8 Panthers).

Of course, you can only beat the teams in front of you and winning on the road anywhere in the NFL is difficult. But this is a league that, unlike baseball and basketball, deals with limited sample sizes and the occasional misleading record. In a ten game span anything is possible. This is also a league that legislates parity by rewarding bad teams in one season with a softer schedule next time around. The temporary dominance is soon exposed, as we saw with the 2008 Miami Dolphins (11-5) and last year’s Kansas City Chiefs (10-6). We should further bear in mind that the Niners play in one of the worst divisions in the NFL, and they will clinch the NFC West after only eleven games if they can win this Thanksgiving.

Do not take this the wrong way, because the Niners are a good football team. However, despite their record, they are not the second best team in the league and they are still searching for a truly defining victory. To that end, they now make the 3,000-mile trip to Baltimore on a short week and take on the like-minded miserly rush defense that is the Ravens. It will be the first time in NFL history that two Head Coach brothers face off against one another. A win here will go a long way towards  silencing the sceptics, and making us all believers in magic again.

Oggy’s Quick Slants

–       The Baltimore Ravens are 5-1 this season against teams with a winning record, but remarkably just 2-2 against teams with a record of .500 or worse. Add this to the fact that the Ravens defense is only allowing 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, (best in the NFL), and it does not bode well for the 49ers tomorrow.

–       Tony Romo is 18-2 all time in the month of November. He has thrown for 12 TD’s versus 2 INT’s since the bye week, and from 2006 onwards he has the best QB rating for 4^th quarters and overtime in the league. Stop hating; the man is an impressive QB.