After a weekend of dramatic upsets in the NFL, I am left to repeat a common refrain; “what the hell is going on around here?” Year after year I have managed to find a way to discern the nuances of this great game and make reliable, sensible, and generally accurate predictions as to the outcomes of NFL contests. Along with my partner, Steven Miranda, we have consistently amassed the highest wining percentage of correct winners over the past five NFL seasons. Sure we have our off weeks going 8-8 or the very rare week of missing more than we won, but the 2010 NFL season is ridiculous. Either we have no talent for picking winners or to lift a title from an ancient Broadway musical, “something is afoot.”
Before anyone hears me suggesting a paranoid conspiracy, let me put that nonsense to rest and suggest the most obvious explanation possible: true parity has come to the NFL. On sports talk radio last week, I heard a “professional” decry this season as one of mediocrity. To that gentleman I would ask how an entire 32 team league can decide to not be very good for one season. Perhaps it is the players way of sticking it to the owners as another bargaining chip as we head toward the showdown at the O.K. Corral which is the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. I doubt that Big Foot fans and those convinced that J.F.K. lived on an island after being gunned down in Dallas could sleep at night with this half baked theory. That being said, it is pretty weird that this is the first time in a generation that no team is undefeated this early in a season.
If NFL players are anything, they are competitive. They will try and out dress each other, have the best sound bites, play cards until the wee hours of the morning, and always show up on Sunday with one thing on their minds — winning. Most athletes will tell you that losing contains much more powerful emotions than does winning. Coaches have left the game because they cannot live with losing. Winning is what athletes expect. As a result the euphoria is short lived and part of the outcome expected. Losing is a whole other animal which stays for much longer and eats away at a person. I have never met anyone who competes at a very high level who disagrees with this assessment.
Since winning is everything for athletes the only logical conclusion for this 2010 NFL season is that the teams have become more balanced than we have seen in recent seasons. By the way — this is exactly what the league’s trustees desire and have gone out of their way to create with free agency and the draft. In the NFL the team with the worst record ALWAYS gets the first crack at improving their team via the draft. Parity has been preached as the philosophy which would make the Game more exciting. Guess what? It is happening before our eyes and in this 2010 season has made every game, must see TV.
What some mistaken individuals call a league of mediocrity (which by definition means, not good), is nothing more than a increasingly level playing field. And while this makes the job of punditry that much more difficult, I doubt there are too many NFL executives losing sleep over this development. Yes we are seeing more undisciplined play taking place resulting in more penalties, but this has more to do with recent rule changes and a renewed emphasis on protecting players. It takes players a while to adjust to sudden and radical shifts in officiating. All-in-all it is good for the league and unfortunate for those of us who are supposed to sound intelligent about predicting the outcomes of games. It is not hard to discern which is more important for the League. The League is stronger for the parity and the pundits must get much more accustomed to that foul taste which comes from regularly eating crow.
Well, if it’s any consolation, Jeff, you are still comfortably beating the ESPN brain trust, with the exception of Mortensen. Although I often wonder if that’s a like-for-like comparison – do those guys get to change their picks up to the last minute, or are they locked when they post? Anyhow, you are more edutaining than them, in many different ways!
One factor you don’t mention is injuries – it may be my perspective with the Eagles so banged up, but do you think there are more top flight players getting hurt early this year, so the teams are in a race to the bottom of their depth charts? Clearly more players are getting held out for concussion, it seems, and rightly so. I was interested to hear on the preview show last week that a player “only” had concussion-like symptoms. Isn’t concussion diagnosed by its symptoms, so he actually DID have a concussion?!
Couldn’t agree with you more, Jeff. For me it’s been the most intriguing and interesting season I can remember since I started following the NFL about 12 years ago, perhaps all the more so because no-one really saw it coming – we expected some divisions to be close, but not all of them! I love the fact that everyone in the AFC South is 3-2, really didn’t see that coming at all.
I think you also ought to take a look back at what you guys said before the season started, I’m paraphrasing but it was something like “Every bad team from last season has improved going into this season, apart from Tampa (I think?)”. You should take some credit for this statement based upon results so far! The fact that such improvements have been made by teams like St Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland etc. etc. has to have an effect at the other end; I think we’d all agree that predicting who’ll be in the Superbowl based on results so far is pretty much impossible – no-one has really stood out.
i’m not sure that i can agree that the nfl has reached a more level playing field. While i gladly accept that there have been immense improvements in some previously weak teams, some of the stronger teams nave been playing sucky football, littered with mistakes, bad plays and poor calls from officials. Are the high earners distracted perhaps by what could happen in 2011/2012? What are the comparative stats for picks, fumbles and missed field goals?
See, this is why I love the NFL Jeff, who would of thought the Cardinals, Titans and the Raiders would come off with great upsets. The team that is looking the strongest is the Falcons with 4 straight wins, 49ers who everyone thought would breakout and be that divisions winner, but are sitting at the bottom with a 0-5 record. The Bears looking strong, allow a record to be equaled for sacks against Cutler. All these things all add up to the amazing goings on in this sport! Week after week you just don’t know what will happen! In the end it all just comes down to that sunday, that game and those players!
Great article!
While I certainly agree with you Jeff more than I do with some of the other stuff I have read on the topic, two things come to mind: firstly, given that there are a finite number of games (and therefore wins & losses) in the NFL there’s no such thing as increased mediocrity (which really is defined as average, neither great nor bad). While the play of the top teams may have so far regressed to the mean so has the bottom shifted upwards. It’s a glass half full scenario and in that way it’s impossible to be meaningfully negative or positive about the topic. Secondly, given that the NFL runs every year and seemingly will do so forever and ever (!) there are always statistical anomalies every season. It could be that in 2010 a higher than normal number of good teams are randomly losing games while the worst teams are picking up wins they shouldn’t. It doesn’t necessarily suggest there are more even teams around, just that the records falsely point us in that direction – a few dozen plays here or there (out of tens of thousands) and the spread of winning records might look “normal”. Especially this early in the season it’s still too small a sample size to suggest any kind of hypothesis on the topic because form is overuling class.
great post like usual
Keep up the great work
What are you saying? All the games are “must see games” you mean no more sound bites of you snoring because there are no nap games!! Jez Jeff that’s some effort to avoid the snoring…. Great piece again, I do think that in another couple of weeks the cream will rise to the top. I hate to say it but the Jets, Ravens, and Falcons are starting to look pretty darn good.
Completely agreed Jeff.
It’s been an enthralling season so far and I just can’t wait for the next round of games to come up.
The Ravens and Jets are looking good right now but I still think they’re suspect to the odd mistake which could cost them a few games over the long run.
To me the Falcons look strongest, even though they did squeak through past the 49ers and the Saints.
Only Buffalo really stand out as a terrible team, the 1st pick in 2011 is already on the horizon.
Great read.
My 2 cents. I love it! I hate that my picks are near on par with a coin. I HATE that my dear chargers are flat. But I love the drama and uncertainty. My two sports, NFL and the english premier league. I look at the premier league, top 5 teams are the same now (7 weeks in) as at the end of last season… Guess I can stop watching that till the last round (where I imagine it’ll be the same). But the NFL… Can’t look away!
Really interesting article jeff, i think you and steven always seem to cast a critical and unbiased eye on the NFL and i do agree with you, it is becoming increasingly harder to predict the outcomes of games and for me it makes your prediction show even more important as to hear the reasons behind your picks.
keep up the good work and i will see you in Leeds!
In the last couple of years you could argue that there has perhaps been a little less parity than normal, with the likes of the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings etc all putting up double-digit win seasons as a matter of course. Maybe its just their turn to go on a downswing.
Then again, the playoffs have consistently seen a 50% turnover in teams each year. Or will that be even higher this year!
I think the league has come to an almost level playing field, teams can have the biggest names (biggest divas) on their rosters and it all counts for naught it would seem in the 2010 season. The deciding factor now for teams is not who they have but how they play. Look at Miami a few seasons ago, they had the wildcat, it caused a level of unbalance within the league as people rushed to try and defend against it or develop their own wildcat system. This lasted for one season, maybe two if you really push it but it showed that it wasn’t who you had, but how you played.
This season it seems to be all coming down to penalties and special teams play, these seem to be the deciding factor in most games of late. Two examples spring to mind already this season;
Packers vs Bears; Green Bay were hands down faves going into this match and most people agreed that the Packers were going to put the hurting on a mistake filled Bears. But in a flip flop Green Bay were not beaten by the Bears but by themselves, the 18 penalties prevented many plays from standing in which would have put the Bears out of their misery, but instead the Bears win thanks to these penalties.
Raiders vs Chargers; This very week Oakland come out and end the second longest losing streak in NFL history (Bills vs Patriots is the longest) and beat the Changers who lived up to their new nickname the “Sometimes” Chargers. Two major plays by the Raiders special teams gave them the edge in this game and proved its not who you have but how you play.
Is there really such thing as a “nap” game this season? By the looks of things the answer is no!
Hey Jeff… I have another example of parity or mediocity. Your fantasy football team is leading a division with a 1-3-1 record. I am not sure what to call that. You tell me.
That’s why they play the games!
If we could determine outcomes by simply doing a video game type analysis of the roster and emotional state, would the games be truly fun to watch. It seems there are two different reasons why various people watch the NFL. The first reason is because it’s a fun game to watch. The second reason is in order to stroke our own ego even though we have nothing to do with what is going on on the field. If we are constantly complaining about how the games are playing out and that is hampering our enjoyment of the NFL, if the second reason is overtaking the first, then maybe a little humility is in order.
I also disagree with most who are saying there is no greatness in the NFL this year. I think there are two teams who are sticking out above the rest with a few teams who could join them. It is starting to feel like the Jets and the Steelers year. Name one phase of the game on offense, defense and special teams that the Jets and the Steelers do not do well right now? But, they are defensive oriented teams. Teams who are defensively great look ugly doing it. We have just been so accustomed to seeing teams like the Rams, Colts, Saints, Pats with Moss, Cardinals with Warner, etc… that we may have forgotten or want to forget what good defensive football looks like.
Nice article Jeff. Sorry for my rambling response.
I’m completely in line with Andy and with your article Jeff, this 2010 season is the most exciting I ever had the chance to follow. But yes, I have trashed all my picks that’s for sure.
Great post, Jeff.
I really enjoy this season from a fan standpoint, although I quite hate it as a gambler. There are just too many upsets and unforeseeable twists and turns. Will stop that money burning for a while.. maybe :-)
The Bucs, to me, are an emerging team. They stuffed their defensive front with McCoy and Price, have a promising young QB and a future star with Mike Williams.
Along with the Rams with Bradford (and S. Jackson) and the Lions doing all the right things, I look forward to these 3 teams being contenders in a couple of years.
I put the changes down to coaching. Coaching throughout the league has been in relative turmoil throughout the last three years with almost half the teams gaining new head coaches in addition to the almost daily turnovers of assistants. Without stability at the coaching level how can stability on the field be maintained. Not only this but the quality and agression of coaches plays a major factor, many of the new young breed of coaches take more risk in their play calling while at the same time making obvious mistakes in certain situations (special teams this year).
For a laugh, check out the Ravens v Patriots Preview video on NFL.com, where the caption maker confused BenJarvus Green-Ellis for two seperate people.
Great post as always Jeff.
As Ross mentioned, the sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions about NFL parity. I doubt it will ever be possible. In fact, I will just come out and say that true parity will never happen, especially not within a considered timeframe of one, or even several seasons.
Certain weeks may approximate what an “NFL parity model” may predict, but as many posters above mention, you have coaching, drafting, player development, etc. etc. and many uncontrolled significant factors in play here. FUMBLE!
Even the salary cap doesn’t really bring in parity. It only controls one thing. And that “thing” varies vastly between groups of teams. Which tells me that the salary cap is likely too high (as of 2009) to have an effect on league-wide parity.
Fascinating topic. Thanks for the tought provoking post, Jeff.