What a week. The sports news media has been consumed by the exposing of fraud and fiction. A cyclist finally confessed to his wrongdoing, on a network that nobody can find. One can only imagine Oprah’s jaw dropping as the OWN’s finest moment was superseded at the last second, by the story of a college football player’s imaginary girlfriend. You couldn’t make it up. Although, clearly, someone did.
Ridiculous sideshows, that are of no real relevance practically, have hijacked our focus as sports fans. True, the facts involved are incredible. Conspiracy theories and speculation over motive provides endless entertainment as we unravel deceits that were perpetuated over many years. But it is all gossip; a further illustration of the male soap opera that sport has become. Indeed, the enormity of these stories is partly down to our own creation of athlete mythologies. We enhance simple stories, elevating them into fairytales, and then we are incredulous when they do not conform to reality.
The introduction to this article has been something of a sideshow. Lost in the demands for truth, shame and tears, is the very real prospect of two immensely entertaining matchups on Championship Sunday. You would be forgiven for forgetting that there is sport actually being played this week.
The 49ers travel to Atlanta in the first of the two games. The Falcons are somewhere between 3-4.5 point underdogs to reach their first Superbowl since 1999. This is despite the fact that they are playing at home and are the No. 1 seed in the conference. To put this into context, the Falcons are the largest underdog of any No. 1 seed, in any round, since the 1978 playoff expansion.
The 49ers are one of the few teams in the NFL that can rush the quarterback effectively with only four players. Expect to see a lot of pressure on the man that is optimistically nicknamed ‘Matty Ice’. In Matt Ryan’s favour is the home field advantage: he is 34-6 in the regular season and playoffs for his career in the Georgia Dome. The only quarterback with a better winning percentage at home since the Superbowl era is Tom Brady, by one tenth of a percent. Ryan will also look to expose the fairly average secondary of Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown with the tandem of Roddy White and Julio Jones. Do not write off the Falcons just yet. After all, what are the odds of Colin Kaepernick repeating his historical performance of last week?
In the later game, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick look to add to their unparalleled legacy against a Ray Lewis-inspired Ravens team. Since 2010, all three meetings between the teams have been decided by a field goal or less. Notwithstanding this, the Ravens are in big trouble. Baltimore is fresh off a double-overtime win on the road in Denver that was both physically and emotionally exhausting.
Their main hope will be to take advantage of the fabled Patriots secondary that is constantly singled out as New England’s biggest weakness. However, there has been a noticeable improvement in this area for the Patriots since the middle of the season and the introduction of Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard into the starting line-up at cornerback, with Devin McCourty moving over to safety. In the second half of the regular season, the Patriots have given up 19 fewer passes for 20+ yards. 413 yards derived from such passes, compared to the 915 that were allowed in the first half of the season. Furthermore, two fewer touchdowns have been conceded. New England is significantly stronger now in the deep middle, where you tend to find McCourty. This is important as it counters the fact that Joe Flacco’s completion percentage is greatest when passing over the middle. Flacco also achieved more yards per play (9.7) passing over the middle in 2012 than passing to his left (5.1) or right (7.8).
Flacco versus the secondary is the crucial match-up. If he is stymied, then the Ravens have no chance. There are few teams in the league that can afford to lose a player of Gronkowski’s talent on offense and not sacrifice their potency, but the Patriots are certainly one of them. Their innovative hurry-up offense will surely be too much for the ageing and tired Ravens defense to contend with.
Reality may not be stranger than fiction, but on Championship Sunday it should prove to be just as entertaining. After gorging on everything that is not true this week, let us at least take the last day to savour what is real.
Oggy’s Quick Slants
– Few offensive weapons are better than Gronkowski. Among his many accolades, he shares the record for most touchdowns scored in the first two seasons of his career. His 28 TDs places him in a tie with none other than Randy Moss. In fact, since 2010 no other player has caught more touchdowns in the league, regardless of the fact that Gronkowski missed a sizeable portion of this season. The Patriots’ continued success on offense is a testament to the adaptability of Brady and Belichick;
– Flacco should expect a heightened emphasis on the blitz from the Patriots defense this Sunday. In the second half of the regular season, New England’s percentage of blitzes on passing plays increased from 16.6% to 32%, with big blitzes of six or more players increasing from 2.5% to 7.9%.
