With the Super Bowl just a week away, it's time to start looking at the match-ups. These are very early looks, not my prediction.
To start off, we'll do the breakdown of when the Arizona Cardinals pass the ball. For this one, it's obviously streng
th against strength. Arizona has maybe the best passing game in the NFL, and the Steelers were the best passing defense in the regular season, not necessarily because of their secondary, but because of their top front-seven. Basically, something has to give.
For the Cardinals to have a chance at winning this game, Kurt Warner absolutely needs to play well. Pittsburgh obviously loves to blitz and create havoc for the quarterback. With the second-most sacks on the season, they obviously do a good job at it. LaMarr Woodley, Rodney Harrison and everyone else will get their share of sacks.
Fortunately for the Cardinals, they have one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding it: Kurt Warner. He's made his offensive line look better than it really is at pass protection because of his astounding ability to not only perfectly read the pass rush, but also make adjustments by throwing to the hot route. Expect him to do this a lot on Sunday, possibly forcing the Steelers to back off on their pass rush and focus on coverage instead.
In order to do this, Warner will need his stellar group of receivers to step up, likely facing single coverage numerous times, at least at the beginning of the game. Larry Fitzgerald, however, should be shadowed by the Steelers' defense most of the day. I expect him to do something because, well, we have all seen why in the last three games. Warner just needs to put the pall in the vicinity of him, and it'll be caught. Ike Taylor, who is expected to be matched up with him on most occasions, has a hell of a task on his hands, even if he's alone covering him only two or three times. We all know that when they get an opportunity, the Cardinals will attempt a deep pass to possible the league's best receiver. A completed deep pass could be the edge the Cardinals need to win the game.
But when he's too well-covered, others need to step up. Will Anquan Boldin be healthy enough to make an impact? I'm sure he thinks so; the key will be if he's fast enough to beat his man to the middle of the field and run after the catch, aspects he usually excels at when healthy. Plus, Pittsburgh can't overlook all of the other targets Warner will be throwing to, such as his running backs (specifically JJ Arrington, if he plays) out of the backfield, as well as other receivers, notably Steve Breaston. The Steelers can be beat with some speed coming at them, and Arrington can do just that.
Keep in mind the man who will be calling the plays for the Steelers, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. He loves making adjustments throughout the game, so any success the Cardinals have on the first drive will most likely be done in a different way the next time. If he feels uncomfortable blitzing more than five or six defenders, or Warner makes the decision for him with effective play, look for LeBeau to throw complicated schemes at Warner, not sacrificing many from coverage but attempting to confuse the quarterback and offensive line.
This may be difficult to do, as Warner, again, is one of the best at reading blitzes and figuring out a defense because of his age and football smarts. The line, while unspectacular, has been together the whole season and has learned to work as a single unit. It will take their best game to keep Warner on his feet. Kurt is, however, going to be knocked down on multiple occasions and, knowing the Steelers, they will be a very large shot to take. He cannot be rattled, though, and make mistakes, or the Pittsburgh defense will pounce. That is, after all, what they do well. Fortunately, with someone that has such mental strength and confidence, I do not see this being a very big issue.
A potential difference maker is safety Troy Polamalu. Any mistake Warner makes over the middle of the field, and Troy will do his best to take advantage of it. If Pittsburgh is to win, Polamalu could play a big part in it, perhaps making an impact interception or fumble-causing hit.
How Warner reacts to whatever blitz the Steelers throw at him could very well be the deciding factor in the ballgame. Arizona's defense is playing well, but without a good offensive game, they really have no shot at winning in Tampa Bay.
Of course, a solid running game would make Warner's job a whole lot easier. Up next: how Arizona's running game will fare against the league's best defense.
